by Derek Simon
Perhaps the most satisfying thing about the Sport of Kings is that one’s opinion can be validated or invalidated in a matter of minutes — for the cost of a $2 tote ticket.
Compare that to some of Einstein’s better-known suppositions (that’s Einstein the man, not the Grade 1-winning thoroughbred).It took nearly 100 years and a reported $700 million for NASA’s Gravity Probe B to at least partially confirm the great scientist’s Theory of Relativity, which asserts that gravity warps and twists the fabric of space and time. (Frankly, NASA could have saved a lot of dough simply by watching “Star Trek.” William Shatner, who played Capt. James Tiberius Kirk of the mythical starship Enterprise, confirmed the devastating effect gravity can have on fabric years ago — when he attempted to squeeze into those ultra-tight Starfleet uniforms for movie versions of the popular sci-fi television series.)
That said, I am still convinced that Quality Road is the best three-year-old in America, despite his five-length loss in last Saturday’s Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Yes, I know the Todd Pletcher trainee was beaten by Summer Bird, who had been thrashed by Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Stakes four weeks earlier — so what?
On Jan. 22, 1973, George Foreman annihilated Joe Frazier (“Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!”) in a championship boxing match dubbed the “Sunshine Showdown.” Frazier, who had previously defeated Muhammad Ali in defense of his heavyweight crown, hit the canvas six times before referee Arthur Mercante mercifully stopped the fight with 34 seconds remaining in the second round. Yet, it was Ali and not “Grill Master George” that emerged victorious in the “Rumble in the Jungle.”
Personally, I believe it is a mistake to judge a racehorse on the basis of one good or bad performance — does the name “Arazi” ring any bells? Given the circumstances — a tough trip and a severe lack of conditioning — I think Quality Road ran a heck of a race in the Travers and I can’t wait for his next start.
I’m calling it the “Road to Redemption” (those old boxing matches have inspired me).
Alexandra the Great Tops Field of Eight
Rather than bore you with more reasons why Rachel Alexandra is a special filly that is favored to win Saturday’s Woodward over older, male rivals at Saratoga, I thought I would just give you my fair odds, as well as some pros and cons on each contender. So, here it goes:
1-DA’ TARA (12/1 fair odds)
Best Recent Beyer figure (last three races): 91
Best Recent late speed ration (LSR): -10
Pros: He’s a Grade 1 winner, having captured the 2008 Belmont Stakes.
Cons: Robert LaPenta charge is 0-for-8 following his upset score in the Test of Champions, including a 49-length loss in his latest start, in which he broke in the air and raced erratically through the stretch.
1A-COOL COAL MAN (12/1)
Best Recent Beyer figure: 107
Best Recent LSR: -5
Pros: Nick Zito trainee has got the second-best overall early speed rations (ESRs) and the third-best overall LSRs. In addition, his most recent Beyer number (107) was a career best.
Cons: Only win in 11 graded starts occurred in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 24, 2008.
2-BULLSBAY (8/1)
Best Recent Beyer figure: 107
Best Recent LSR: -4
Pros: In a word, this guy’s got talent, as evidenced by his 18-1 upset win in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap four weeks ago — and he’s getting better. After capturing just two of his first eight career starts, Bullsbay has posed for pictures in five of his last 10 trips to post.
Cons: Five-year-old son of Tiznow is picking up a lot of weight following his Whitney score and the -9 LSR he posted in that race is merely average.
3-RACHEL ALEXANDRA (1/2)
Best Recent Beyer figure: 116
Best Recent LSR: -7
Pros: Her Beyer figures tower over this field and she’s a perfect 7-for-7 in 2009, with an average winning margin of 9 1/4 lengths. Plus, Rachel Alexandra has got the best overall early speed and has learned to rate in recent starts, making her a threat from on or off the pace.
Cons: That awesome Haskell win, along with her growing reputation, virtually assures that the Jess Jackson filly will be overbet in this spot.
4-MACHO AGAIN (6/1)
Best Recent Beyer figure: 105
Best Recent LSR: -3
Pros: Macho Uno colt ran big to annex his first Grade 1 in the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs on June 13 and, at the age of four, he might still have some improvement left in him.
Cons: He’ll need that improvement if he hopes to run down Rachel Alexandra.
5-IT’S A BIRD (15/1)
Best Recent Beyer figure: 107 (twice)
Best Recent LSR: -3
Pros: His win in the Lone Star Park Handicap was super impressive (107 Beyer, -3 LSR).
Cons: Effort in the Suburban on July 4 — his last start — leaves much to be desired, as do his subsequent workouts.
6-ASIATIC BOY (10/1)
Best Recent Beyer figure: 98 (twice)
Best Recent LSR: -4
Pros: Kiaran McLaughlin trainee has earned $3.3 million in his racing career and has recorded very respectable LSRs in each of his two most recent North American tries.
Cons: At the age of six, he may have lost a step or two.
7-PAST THE POINT (30/1)
Best Recent Beyer figure: 98
Best Recent LSR: -11
Pros: This guy was my key horse in last year’s Woodward and he justified my love by finishing a close second to Horse of the Year Curlin (that’s the only positive I could come up with).
Cons: His recent LSRs have been woeful and, unlike last year, he doesn’t appear to have an early speed advantage either.
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Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.
